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Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending December 13, 2019)

Approaching U.S trade tariff deadlines, continued uncertainty of a phase one U.S.-China trade agreement, CPI and PPI reports, the FOMC meeting and UK elections all added to a jittery start of the week. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, unchanged at 1.84% through Tuesday after an as-expected CPI report, fell 5bps on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve bank said it would maintain the current Fed funds target rate unless there was a significant outlook change. President Trump’s announcement on Thursday that he had signed off on the trade agreement caused 10-year U.S. Treasury rates to reverse course and increase 10bps to 1.89% only to reverse course again on Friday after China confirmed there was an agreement and after a benign retail sales report pushing 10-year Treasury rates down 7bps to 1.82%. The S&P 500 index moved lower early in the week, also affected by the uncertainty surrounding the FOMC meeting and the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. Down 0.4% through Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% the remainder of the week after the announcement of a trade agreement and a “steady-as-she-goes” policy annunciated by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.7% to 3168.8, 10-year U.S. interest rates fell 1bp to 1.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.5%.

Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending December 6, 2019)

U.S. stock markets moved lower Monday and Tuesday last week following statements from President Trump threatening steel tariffs on Brazil and Argentinia, promising repercussions to France’s digital tax and allowing for the possibility of U.S-China trade negotiations dragging on through 2020. Conversely, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates moved higher on Monday after better-than-expected manufacturing data from China, then moved sharply lower on Tuesday following President Trump’s comments regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. Reports on Wednesday that a U.S.-China trade agreement was very close, all but erasing concerns raised Tuesday, and stronger-than-expected non-manufacturing data moved 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and U.S. stock markets higher. Lower-than-expected initial jobless claims on Thursday and a much-stronger-than expected employment situation report on Friday pushed U.S. stock markets and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields higher through the remainder of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up 0.2% to 3145.91, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 6bp to close at 1.84% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.6%.

Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending November 29, 2019)

Supported by indications of progress on a U.S.-China trade agreement and strong U.S. economic reports (including new home sales and 2nd estimate Q3 GDP), the S&P 500 Index moved 1.4% higher through Wednesday to close at 3153.63, another all-time high. President Trump’s signing of legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters along with falling energy prices pushed U.S. stock markets slightly lower with the S&P 500 Index slipping 0.4%. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up 1% to 3140.98, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates gained 1bp to 1.78% and the U.S. dollar was unchanged (as measured by the DXY index).

Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending November 22, 2019)

Comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping calling for increased communications between the U.S. and China, positive comments from President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade frictions and stronger-than-expected economic reports on Friday moved U.S. stock markets, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar off their lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 was down 0.3% to 3110.29, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 6bps to 1.77% and the U.S. dollar strengthened (all on Friday) 0.3% (as measured by the DXY index). ).

Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending November 15, 2019)

Renewed optimism over a U.S.-China trade agreement spurred by Trump administration comments and stronger-expected retail sales on Friday, pushed the S&P 500 Index almost a percent higher and moved 10-year U.S. Treasury rates a couple of basis points off their lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 increased 0.9% to 3120.46, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 11bps to 1.83% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.4% (as measured by the DXY index).

Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending November 8, 2019)

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic and earnings reports – and despite increased expectations that the next rate move by the U.S. Federal Reserve bank will be a move higher – pushed the S&P 500 Index up 0.85% to an all-time high of 3093.08 while moving the 10-year U.S Treasury rate higher by 23 bps to 1.94% and strengthened the U.S. dollar by 1.2% (as measured by the DXY index).

Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending November 1, 2019)

Starting the week with strong expectations of a partial trade agreement between the U.S.- and China, U.S. stock markets and the 10-year Treasury rate both moved higher early in the week. With Wednesday’s FOMC decision to once again lower the Fed Fund’s target rate 25bps while at the same time hinting the Federal Reserve Bank would pause further rate reductions combined with a lackluster 3rd quarter GDP report, 10-year U.S Treasury rates moved off their intraweek highs while the U.S. stock markets seemed unphased. Weaker-than-expected consumer spending number and reduced expectations of a U.S.-China trade agreement partially reversed gains in U.S. stock markets and pushed the 10-year Treasury even rate lower on Thursday. Friday’s much-stronger-than-expected employment situation report -despite weaker-than-expected manufacturing data -pushed U.S. stock markets even higher and slightly increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up almost 1.5% to 3066.91, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was lower 8bps at 1.71% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) was weaker 0.6%.

Commentary,

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending October 25, 2019)

Buoyed by increased optimism of a U.S.-China trade agreement, overall better-than-expected U.S. earnings reports and continued expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve Bank easing, the S&P 500 Index, increased 1.2% to 3022.55, just shy of its record in late July of 3025.86. The U.S. dollar strengthened over the week, despite U.S. Federal Reserve Bank easing expectations, on the back of weak economic reports from the EU and China. At week’s end the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.6% and 10-year U.S Treasury rates increased 4.5bps to 1.0%