When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.
2019 has introduced myriad new varieties of yield to investors, including familiar fan-favorites such as flat and declining yields. For investors seeking a more exotic flare, markets have debuted negative and even inverted yields. However, only true aficionados will be able to savor the ultimate pairing of yield flavors, such as negative speculative yields, a true Italian masterpiece. Ciao Bella!
Concerns of weak U.S. economic growth spurred by the previous week’s weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report and exacerbated by growing concerns of increased trade frictions between the U.S. and China pushed U.S. stock markets lower and strengthened the U.S. dollar early last week. The release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday, comments from various Fed officials reaffirming the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank would continue to act to maintain the expansion and the Fed’s announcement it would increase its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasuries helped move U.S. stock markets off their intra-week lows through the remainder of the week. Reports on Thursday that President Trump would meet with Vice Premier Liu on Friday and the announcement that a partial trade agreement had been reached with China on Friday, pushed U.S. stock markets and U.S. Treasury rates higher and weakened the U.S. dollar.
A bevy of weak U.S. economic reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, including a very weak ISM manufacturing index release on Tuesday and extremely disappointing auto sales numbers on Wednesday, drove U.S. stock markets, U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar lower last week. Concerns of a slowing U.S. economy increased Thursday after the release of a weaker-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing index number, a weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll report as well as by a mediocre employment report on Friday. Despite Thursday’s and Friday’s reports, U.S. stock markets rebounded off their lows with increasing market expectations of more U.S. Federal Reserve Bank rate reductions . The S&P 500 Index, down more 2.5% through Wednesday, finished the week only 0.3% lower at 2,952.01. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 15bps over the week to 1.53% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.3% over the week.
Weak economic reports in Europe and Asia along with the what may be the beginning of impeachment proceedings against President Trump pushed U.S. and global stock markets lower, strengthened the U.S. dollar and moved U.S. Treasury rates lower.
Dominated by news of attacks on Saudi oil processing facilities, U.S. Federal Reserve Bank repo operations and the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets and the U.S. dollar remained relatively calm while 10-year U.S. interest rates moved lower off their recent highs.
Despite President Trump’s tweets requesting the U.S Federal Reserve Bank dramatically lower rates, higher-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers and better-than-expected retail sales, chain-store sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories reports pushed 10-year interest rates higher by over 30bps and reduced the probability of a rate increase at this week’s FOMC meeting.
Returning Tuesday from a long holiday weekend, U.S. stock and commodity markets moved lower as global and U.S. growth concerns, prompted by tweets from President Trump, increased.
A mix of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports and statements from China seemingly de-escalating trade frictions moved U.S. stock markets higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar.